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2026-W31 CHRW

April Mcclain Delaney CHRW: composite 73.2, ML high-confidence

73.2 Elevated ML: High confidence

Headline correlation

April Mcclain Delaney (D-Maryland), CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.)

Composite score: 73.2 / 100 (medium tier)

Transactionpurchase, $15,001 - $50,000, 2026-07-27
Disclosure2026-08-03 (7 day lag)
SectorIndustrials to Integrated Freight & Logistics
CommitteesHouse Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, House Committee on Agriculture, House Committee on Agriculture: Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, House Committee on Agriculture: Conservation, Research, and Biotechnology, House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology: Research and Technology
ML annotationBoth ML heads score this correlation high (distill 93.1, forward-CAR 84.4).

A note on the label: 2026-W31 is the ISO week of the headline trade itself. Each issue covers correlations from the trailing week of disclosures, which can surface trades executed weeks earlier.

What the engine saw. The trade by April McClain Delaney (D-Maryland) in CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.) was flagged due to a high correlation score of 73.15/100, driven by three key factors: event timing (26.3 points) aligning the trade with a recent legislative or regulatory event, committee overlap (18.4 points) in the Industrials sector, and a pre-event trade (15.8 points) suggesting activity prior to a relevant development. The lobbying context, which targets defense and industrial sectors, further contextualizes the trade’s timing relative to potential legislative or regulatory shifts impacting CHRW’s operations.

Supporting signals.

  • Contract (score 73.2, 2026-07-27): to OSHKOSH DEFENSE LLC | $455,753
  • Bill (score 63.0, 2026-08-03): No TSA Data for ICE Act
  • Bill (score 60.0, 2026-08-06): To amend titles 5, 18, and 40, United States Code, to prohibit the renaming of Federal property except through a provision of law enacted by Congress, and for…

SHAP top features. timing_raw (+7.663), jurisdiction_raw (+5.100), trade_before_event_raw (+1.320)

Abnormal returns vs SPY. n/a (7d) / n/a (30d) / n/a (90d)

Why this one matters

This issue carries the engine’s rarest label: both ML heads back the composite, the strongest agreement it emits. It is worth showing what that label survives contact with, because the filing itself takes most of the signal back. Every transaction in the August 3 report carries owner code DC, a dependent child’s account, not the member’s. Every line carries a single notification date of August 1, meaning the member learned of the July 27 purchase five days after it executed, in a batch with roughly seventy other transactions. And McClain Delaney files on a monthly rhythm (January 5, February 2, March 10, April 6, May 6, June 5, July 7, August 3), so the 7-day lag the engine scored as fast disclosure is an artifact of a trade landing near a month-end batch. The CHRW position was not a single pick either: the filing shows six separate purchases spread across July 20 through 31, straddling the earnings date, two of them placed after the stock had already fallen.

What happened next is the sharpest fact in the file. C.H. Robinson reported its fourth straight earnings beat on July 29, and the stock still fell 15.4 percent the next day on softening volume-growth guidance and a stretched multiple. The July 27 lot was underwater within three trading days. Hold that against the forward-CAR head’s 84.4: that head is a model estimate of post-trade abnormal return, and the realized number is already moving hard the other way (the returns row above will fill in as the 30-day window closes). The supporting signals are weaker than they look, too. The contract pair is a $455,753 Oshkosh Defense award, a military vehicle maker with no relation to a freight brokerage, and neither of her committees (Science, Agriculture) has jurisdiction over freight; that belongs to Transportation and Infrastructure, where she does not sit. The bills below the fold are sector-adjacency matches, not freight legislation.

The honest read is that the account, not the trade, is the unit of analysis here. The aggregate profile shows 289 lifetime trades across 41 tickers, buys and sells almost exactly even, underperforming the S&P 500 by 32.6 points over a year, and this same July window shows the account selling Wabtec into an 8 percent post-earnings pop, buying Hubbell into a dip, and adding Liberty Formula One six times into what became an earnings miss. Two-way flow across a rotating basket reads as mechanical rebalancing, not name-level conviction. We could not confirm third-party management directly (the filing carries no advisor attestation and her office has made no statement we can find), so that reading is an inference from filing structure, labeled as such. What would change our mind: a directional pattern that survives the batch structure, meaning single-name accumulation ahead of a committee action the account then exits after the event. On that test the thread worth watching is not CHRW but the Nasdaq purchases reported earlier this year while her Digital Assets subcommittee prepared crypto-market legislation. We log this one as a lesson in what “high-confidence” agreement does and does not mean: two models agreeing on a pattern is not the pattern paying off, and it is not intent.

Sources

Facts in this section that come from outside the engine’s dataset:

Runner-ups this week

  • April Mcclain Delaney (D) to HUBB (Industrials): score 73.2, traded 2026-07-23
  • April Mcclain Delaney (D) to FWONK (Communication Services): score 73.2, traded 2026-07-23
  • April Mcclain Delaney (D) to WAB (Industrials): score 73.2, traded 2026-07-23
  • April Mcclain Delaney (D) to LYV (Communication Services): score 72.1, traded 2026-07-21
  • April Mcclain Delaney (D) to FWONK (Communication Services): score 70.3, traded 2026-07-22

Newcomers we’re watching

Members with under 5 total trade disclosures get listed but not scored; we want enough history to compare against before reading signal into their patterns. This week’s newcomers we’re watching:

  • Sam T. Liccardo (D): 1 lifetime trade(s); most recent: NVDA on 2026-07-21
  • Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D): 1 lifetime trade(s); most recent: ICHR on 2026-06-17
  • Pete Sessions (R): 2 lifetime trade(s); most recent: ARCC on 2026-07-24
  • James A. Himes (D): 3 lifetime trade(s); most recent: XOM on 2026-07-20
  • Debbie Dingell (D): 3 lifetime trade(s); most recent: HONAV on 2026-06-29
  • Robert E. Latta (R): 4 lifetime trade(s); most recent: FMAO on 2026-07-20
  • Kelly Louise Morrison (D): 4 lifetime trade(s); most recent: HONAV on 2026-06-29

This week in the dataset

  • 74 new trade disclosures ingested
  • 1,310 new bill records
  • 588 new lobbying filings
  • 4,422 new correlations scored
  • Top composite score this week: 81.6

Source: public records (QuiverQuant trades, USAspending contracts, Congress.gov bills, lda.gov lobbying). Published under CC0. See the full methodology for the scoring formula, and the supporting data for replication inputs.

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